The Vantage AUDUSD CFD traded at 0.68968 as of 08:45 UTC on 24 June 2026 (16:45 GMT+8), down roughly 183 pips from the 0.7080 area reached on 18 June. The AUD USD pair has printed a fresh low since 7 April, extending a six-session decline as three forces converge: the Federal Reserve’s hawkish June hold, a tech-driven global equity selloff, and a split domestic inflation print released this morning.

This AUDUSD forecast runs through the chart reading, the key levels, and the events that could shift conditions before the week ends. All prices sourced from the Vantage AUDUSD CFD as of 08:45 UTC. This is not financial advice.

Key Points

• The Vantage AUDUSD CFD hit 0.68968 at 08:45 UTC on 24 June 2026 (16:45 GMT+8), the lowest level since 7 April, as the Australian dollar extended its drop from 0.7080 six sessions ago.
• Australia’s May Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed headline annual inflation easing to 4.0% from 4.2%, but trimmed-mean inflation rose to 3.6% from 3.4%, leaving the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) outlook uncertain.^[2]
• A hawkish Fed hold, US PMI beats, and a risk-off equity selloff are collectively keeping the US dollar (USD) firm, weighing on the risk-sensitive AUD/USD pair. For the latest AUD/USD news driving this move, see the sections below.^[3][5]

What the chart is showing

On the 15-minute Vantage chart, the AUDUSD trend has traced consistent lower highs and lower lows since 18 June. The 50-period moving average (MA) sits at 0.69565 and the 200-period MA at 0.69108, per the TradingView setup used for this analysis. Both are declining and above current price, acting as overhead resistance rather than support.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) reads 36.67, below its RSI moving-average overlay at 42.02, per the TradingView setup used for this analysis. Momentum is tilted lower but has not yet reached the 30 oversold threshold. The 0.6900 area is the nearest support of note; the April 7 chart low near 0.6868 lies below. Taken together, the AUDUSD trend on this timeframe remains decisively to the downside.

Three forces pressing on the AUD/USD

The Fed’s hawkish hold

At the 16-17 June 2026 FOMC meeting, the Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75%. The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) carried the weight: the median 2026 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) forecast jumped to 3.6% from 2.7% in March, and core PCE to 3.3%.^[5] Markets increased the probability of additional Fed tightening. The USD surged and the AUDUSD pair dropped roughly 80 pips in the minutes after the decision.

Tech equity selloff

On 23 June 2026, the Nasdaq 100 fell 3.3% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped nearly 8% as investors rotated out of AI-related technology stocks.^[3] The AUD, as a risk-sensitive currency, typically suffers when global equities fall and safe-haven USD demand picks up. Strong US flash PMI data released the same day reinforced the USD’s position.^[4]

Split Australian CPI

The ABS released May CPI at 01:30 GMT today: headline annual inflation eased to 4.0%, but trimmed-mean rose to 3.6%.^[2] The softer headline was in line with expectations. The trimmed-mean rise is the more awkward reading, showing underlying prices moving further above the RBA’s 2-3% target band.

The RBA held at 4.35% in June and left the door open to further tightening depending on data. Any AUD/USD forecast for the weeks ahead must weigh this split reading: headline softening versus sticky core, with the August meeting still live as an AUD to USD forecast risk event.^[6][7] Today’s mixed result leaves the August meeting uncertain.

Key levels

Table 1: Key levels as of 08:45 UTC, 24 June 2026. Sources: TradingView, FXStreet. Indicative only, not trade signals.

What to watch

• Australian Labour Force, 26 June 2026: Employment change and unemployment for May. April saw unemployment at 4.5%. A further rise could deepen pressure on AUD/USD.
• US Core PCE, 26 June 2026: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. A strong print would cement hawkish rate expectations and extend USD strength.
• US Q1 GDP Final, 26 June 2026: Prior revision was softer. A surprise in either direction could shift positioning on the dollar.
• US-Iran geopolitical signals: Mixed messages on Tehran’s nuclear programme are keeping geopolitical risk premia in the USD. Any fresh escalation or de-escalation could move the pair quickly. Traders monitoring AUDUSD news should watch for any signals from Washington or Tehran ahead of the weekend.

AUDUSD has dropped around 180 pips in six sessions and is pressing the 0.6900 area. In a market this reactive to headlines and scheduled data releases, Stop Loss placement should account for the pair’s recent intraday swings. The Australian Labour Force and US Core PCE releases on 26 June 2026 are each capable of triggering significant short-term volatility. Traders with open positions should review their exposure relative to these events.

Leverage in forex CFD trading amplifies both gains and losses on the margin deposited. In a pair moving sharply against a backdrop of macro uncertainty, position sizing relative to account equity warrants a check before upcoming data releases.

RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.

Disclaimer: The information is provided for educational purposes only and doesn’t take into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. It does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to seek independent advice if necessary. The information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within. This material may contain historical or past performance figures and should not be relied on. Furthermore estimates, forward-looking statements, and forecasts cannot be guaranteed. The information on this site and the products and services offered are not intended for distribution to any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

References

[1] “Australian Dollar nears three-month low ahead of Australian CPI data – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-nears-three-month-low-ahead-of-australian-cpi-data-202606231752 Accessed on 24 June 2026.

[2] “Consumer Price Index, Australia, May 2026 – Australian Bureau of Statistics” https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation Accessed on 24 June 2026.

[3] “Australian Dollar tumbles as risk aversion and Fed bets lift the USD – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-tumbles-as-risk-aversion-and-fed-bets-lift-the-usd-202606232320 Accessed on 24 June 2026.

[4] “Australian Dollar struggles near April lows vs firmer USD – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-struggles-near-april-lows-vs-firmer-usd-as-bears-await-06900-break-202606240453 Accessed on 24 June 2026.

[5] “US Dollar Index storms back as the Fed turns hawkish – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-storms-back-as-the-fed-turns-hawkish-202606171817 Accessed on 24 June 2026.

[6] “Australia Interest Rate – Trading Economics” https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/interest-rate Accessed on 24 June 2026.

[7] “What experts predict for the RBA June 2026 interest rate decision – Aussie” https://www.aussie.com.au/insights/news/expert-predictions-rba-rates/ Accessed on 24 June 2026.

[8] “US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Heading towards 102.00 as hawkish Fed bets intensify – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-price-forecast-heading-towards-10200-as-hawkish-fed-bets-intensify-202606220705 Accessed on 24 June 2026.