[DAILY TRADING] NAS100 Analysis 18 June 2026 – Nasdaq 100 Under Pressure as Hawkish Fed Dot Plot Hits Tech
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Updated Thu, 2026 June 18 06:40
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The NAS100 is trading near 30,110 as of 06:05 UTC on 18 June 2026 (14:05 SGT). The Nasdaq 100 today sits just +0.02% higher after a rough 17 June 2026 session, when the index fell roughly 1.3% as the Federal Reserve’s first FOMC meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish surprise.
All prices are from the Vantage NAS100 CFD. Nasdaq chart data is from TradingView. This is not financial advice.
Key Points
- NAS100 price is near 30,110, consolidating between the 200-period MA at 30,060 and the 50-period MA at 30,250 on the 15-minute Nasdaq chart.
- Warsh’s June FOMC meeting held rates at 3.50%–3.75% but the dot plot showed a more hawkish split among policymakers, with several officials now projecting at least one rate increase in 2026, pushing policymakers toward a more hawkish rate outlook.
- RSI on the TradingView setup used for this analysis is at 51.30, neither oversold nor overbought, as the Nasdaq 100 today enters a shortened week with US markets closing for Juneteenth on 19 June 2026.
Nasdaq chart: what happened
The 15-minute NAS100 chart covers 15–18 June 2026 and tells a clear story. The index climbed steadily through 16 June 2026, then sold off sharply around 14:00–15:00 UTC, shedding more than 500 points on elevated volume to reach lows near 29,800.
A partial recovery on 17 June faded following the Fed decision and Chair Warsh’s press conference, contributing to renewed selling pressure. The index settled back near 30,100 and has barely moved since. On the current session, the RSI on the TradingView setup used for this analysis reads 51.30, with the signal line at 51.26. No extreme in either direction.
What drove the Nasdaq 100 lower: the FOMC outcome
The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50%–3.75% on 17 June, as fully expected.[1] The Nasdaq news came from the dot plot: nine of 18 FOMC participants pencilled in at least one rate hike in 2026. The Fed also raised its inflation projections, with core PCE expected to remain well above the 2% target.[2]
Warsh’s policy statement, running to around 130 words, stripped out the easing bias and forward guidance carried under Powell. In its place: a blunt commitment to price stability, no hints on direction.[3] Megacap tech took the brunt. Major technology stocks came under pressure following the Fed’s hawkish shift, with growth-oriented names leading declines across the Nasdaq 100 today. Growth stocks are particularly sensitive to higher-for-longer rates because rising discount rates reduce the present value of future earnings.[4]
NAS100 price levels to watch
The table below shows the key zones on the 15-minute Nasdaq chart. These are reference levels, not trade signals.
| Zone | Level | Notes |
| Resistance 2 | ~30,500–30,600 | Prior swing highs from 16–17 June session peak |
| Resistance 1 / MA50 | ~30,250 | 50-period MA as of 18 June 2026, 06:05 UTC |
| Current price | ~30,110 | Between both MAs; RSI neutral at ~51 |
| Support 1 / MA200 | ~30,060 | 200-period MA; immediate floor on 15-min chart |
| Support 2 | ~29,800–29,850 | 17 June selloff low; volume-supported base |
Table 1: NAS100 key levels as of 18 June 2026, 06:05 UTC. Source: TradingView, Vantage NAS100 CFD. Indicative only.
The Nasdaq 100 today is compressed in a 190-point range between the two moving averages. The 200-period MA at 30,060 is the immediate floor; the 50-period MA at 30,250 is the first layer of resistance, with the 30,500–30,600 swing high zone above that. The 29,800–29,850 area is the level that held during Thursday’s sharpest selling; a return below 30,060 would put it back in focus. Stop Loss placement relative to these zones is the key risk management reference for the current setup.
What to watch
- Juneteenth: US markets closed, 19 June 2026: One full session remaining before the long weekend. Thin liquidity can amplify intraday moves on the Nasdaq index chart.
- NAS100 quarterly rebalance, 22 June 2026: Five new stocks added (ALAB, CRWV, NBIS, RKLB, TER) and five removed. Index-tracking flow on the open may add volatility.[5]
- Fed commentary and inflation data, Week of 22 June 2026: Any remarks from FOMC members on the hawkish dot plot will be closely watched. CPI and PCE prints later in June are the next key data inputs for the Nasdaq 100 news cycle.
On Stop Loss placement: the 200-period MA at 30,060 and the 29,800–29,850 zone are the chart-visible reference levels. With a shortened session ahead and headline-driven gaps possible, sizing exposure relative to the range, not just a notional level, is the relevant consideration.
On leverage and position sizing: leverage on the NAS100 CFD amplifies both gains and losses. The Nasdaq 100 today has seen intraday swings above 500 points in the past 48 hours. Position sizing relative to accounting equity, not just an absolute level, is the sensible starting point ahead of a shortened trading week.
RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.
Disclaimer: The information is provided for educational purposes only and doesn’t take into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. It does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to seek independent advice if necessary. The information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within. This material may contain historical or past performance figures and should not be relied on. Furthermore estimates, forward-looking statements, and forecasts cannot be guaranteed. The information on this site and the products and services offered are not intended for distribution to any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
References
[1] “Warsh rewrites the Fed playbook as FOMC holds rates and signals hikes ahead – investingLive” https://investinglive.com/centralbank/warsh-rewrites-the-fed-playbook-as-fomc-holds-rates-and-signals-hikes-ahead-20260617/ Accessed on 18 June 2026.
[2] “Federal Reserve removes easing bias, policymakers see a hike as more likely than a cut this year – Sherwood News” https://sherwood.news/markets/federal-reserve-fomc-june-2026-rate-decision-kevin-warsh/ Accessed on 18 June 2026.
[3] “Stock Market Today June 17 2026: S&P 500, Nasdaq plummet as Fed meeting points to rate hike in late 2026 – TheStreet” https://www.thestreet.com/stock-market-today/stock-market-today-dow-jones-sp-500-nasdaq-updates-june-17-2026 Accessed on 18 June 2026.
[4] “Meta Drops as Fed Signal Hurts Nasdaq, AI Bet Draws Scrutiny – ts2.tech” https://ts2.tech/en/meta-drops-as-fed-signal-hurts-nasdaq-ai-bet-draws-scrutiny/ Accessed on 18 June 2026.
[5] “Nasdaq-100 Index June 2026 Quarterly Changes – Nasdaq Inc.” https://ir.nasdaq.com/news-releases/news-release-details/nasdaq-100-indexr-june-2026-quarterly-changes Accessed on 18 June 2026.
