Weekly Outlook | Soft Data in Focus Amid Renewed Dollar Strength
Updated Updated Wed, 2025 September 24 01:01
Important events this week:
This week will feature only limited news events. Markets are expected to continue with their focus on the interest rate decisions from last week. While the Fed had cut interest rate for the first time in several months equities continued to move higher. Yet, the renewed strength of the Dollar might cause setbacks for equities at some point. A stronger Greenback would make US stocks pricier and hence causing the demand of the Dollar to weaken.
In the currency world, however, the strength of the Dollar might offer markets to start some fresh momentum into new directions. In particular crosses like the GBPAUD or EURNZD have started to gear up some steam again as the underlying currencies behave differently against the rising US- Dollar. The interest rate decision of the SNB from Switzerland might also cause some volatility, whereas the momentum might be very limited as no change is expected.
– UK – flash manufacturing pmi– The purchasing manager index from the UK might offer fresh volatility for the Pound. The soft data is not expected to shake up market much but the current trend of the GBP could be impacted. The weakness of the Pound might continue if the data also shows some weakness.
GBPAUD monthly chart
Given the recent bearish turnaround as it can be seen in the monthly chart above, the market might be more receptive for negative news moving forward. The bearish pinbar candlestick continues to be the strong resistance at 2.1000 and might leave the AUD with further advantage. Any weaker reading of the pmi data could hence cause the downtrend to intensify. The consumer price index from Australia, which will be released on Wednesday, might also help the current move if it comes in stronger than expected. The PMI data from the UK will be published on Tuesday the 23rd of September, 2025 at 10:30 CET.
– CH- interest rate decision– The interest rate decision from the Swiss National Bank might help to give clarity for the USDCHF currency pair. The market started to move higher due to the renewed strength of the Dollar. It is not expected that another rate cut will follow after the recent adjustment in the previous quarter. However, fresh upside in the market might be seen, which depends on the hawkishness of the wording from the Bank.
USDCHF weekly chart
From a technical perspective, the pinbar candlestick pattern from last week might offer a strong support for now. A break above the 0.7970 level and a further rise above the psychological zone of 0.8000 might unleash fresh upside momentum. As a potential target the 50- moving average trendline, currently ranging at 0.8377, could be used. The data from the US will be released on the 29th of August, 2025 at 09:30 CET.
