[DAILY TRADING] SP500 Analysis 11 June 2026— PPI at 08:30 ET, a Record IPO Tonight, and the Fed in 5 Days
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Updated Thu, 2026 June 11 05:31
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The S&P 500 CFD is trading at 7,302.40 as of 01:34 UTC on 11 June 2026 (09:34 GMT+8), 307 points below the 2 June record high of 7,609.78.[1] Three events could define the next move: May PPI data due at 08:30 ET today, the FOMC meeting on 16-17 June, and Kevin Warsh’s first press conference as Fed chair. Prices are sourced from the Vantage SP500 Cash CFD. This is not financial advice.
Key Points
- The SP500 Cash CFD opened at 7,267 on 11 June, printed a low of 7,236, and recovered to 7,302 as of 01:34 UTC, trading 307 points below its 2 June record high of 7,609.78. Price remains below both the 4H 200-period MA at 7,405 and the 4H 50-period MA at 7,504.
- May PPI releases at 08:30 ET after April PPI came in at +1.4% monthly, its largest since March 2022. RSI(14) reads 35.97 per the TradingView setup used for this analysis, below the signal line at 37.57.
- CME FedWatch prices a 96.3% probability of a hold at the 16-17 June FOMC meeting. The more significant question is what Warsh signals in his first press conference, with futures markets now reflecting a more hawkish lean for the second half of 2026.
What the SP500 chart shows on 11 June
The 4H chart covers late April through 11 June 2026. After a rally from around 7,100 in late April, the S&P 500 index reached a record high of 7,609.78 on 2 June 2026 before reversing.[1] The decline erased roughly 4.7% over seven sessions, with the largest red volume bars concentrated in the 9-10 June sessions.
Price broke below the 4H 200-period MA at 7,405 and has not reclaimed it. The 4H 50-period MA at 7,504 is further overhead. The 11 June candle opened at 7,267, reached a low of 7,236, and recovered to 7,302 as of 01:34 UTC.
The RSI(14) per the TradingView setup used for this analysis reads 35.97, with the signal line at 37.57. The RSI dropped to near 25 around 5 June before partially recovering. On 11 June it is edging upward but remains below the signal line.
SP500 news today: three catalysts on the calendar
Wednesday’s CPI set the backdrop: May headline inflation at 4.2% year-on-year, the highest since April 2023, with energy accounting for over 60% of the monthly gain.[2] Core CPI came in at 0.2% month-on-month, below the 0.3% consensus.[2] The SP500 fell 1.62% on the session as Middle East escalation compounded the inflation read.
Test one arrives today. May PPI releases at 08:30 ET (20:30 GMT+8), the second consecutive inflation read before the FOMC meets. A softer print could ease pressure on the rate narrative; a hotter reading would reinforce the hawkish repricing in futures markets.[3]
Test two is the FOMC meeting on 16-17 June. CME FedWatch data showed a 96.3% probability of a hold at 3.50%-3.75% following Wednesday’s CPI release.[4] The market-moving element is the updated dot plot: whether the lone remaining 2026 cut survives, and whether inflation projections are revised higher after two months of acceleration.
One more factor on 11 June: SpaceX (SPCX) prices its Nasdaq IPO after market close at $135 per share, targeting a USD 1.75 trillion valuation, per Reuters and CNBC, set to be the largest IPO on record. Schwab noted the offering is one reason investors may have been selling recent winners to raise cash. Test three is Warsh’s first press conference as Fed chair. The April FOMC minutes noted equity markets had stayed resilient on earnings even amid geopolitical uncertainty.[5] That resilience has since unwound materially. How Warsh frames the committee’s tolerance for elevated inflation at his first meeting will be closely watched.
SP500 price: key levels to watch
Reference levels on the Vantage SP500 Cash CFD as of 01:34 UTC on 11 June 2026.
| Level type | Price (USD) | Zone | Notes |
| Resistance 1 | 7,405 | 4H 200-period MA | First overhead level; price rejected here on 6-7 June recovery attempts |
| Resistance 2 | 7,504 | 4H 50-period MA | 50-MA now declining; a close above would be the first in two weeks |
| Resistance 3 | 7,610 | 2 June record high | Record close; 307 points above current price |
| Support 1 | 7,236 | 11 June session low | Low of the current 4H candle; held so far as of 01:34 UTC |
| Support 2 | 7,200 | Round-number zone | Prior 5 June spike low territory; psychological level |
Table 1: SP500 Cash CFD key levels as of 11 June 2026, 01:34 UTC. Sources: Vantage SP500 Cash CFD, TradingView. Indicative only.
The 7,200 area absorbed a spike below it around 5 June before price recovered. The 7,405 level corresponds to the 4H 200-period MA and is the first overhead zone where recovery attempts stalled.
What to watch
- May PPI, 11 June, 08:30 ET (20:30 GMT+8): The second inflation print before the FOMC meets. A softer reading could ease rate-hike concerns; a significant upside surprise is likely to weigh on the index in early New York trade.
- FOMC meeting, 16-17 June: A hold is near-certain. The market-moving elements are the dot plot revision and Warsh’s press conference tone on the rate path.
- 4H 200-period MA at 7,405: The first resistance zone. Watch whether intraday recovery attempts hold above this level.
- 7,236 session low: The low of the 11 June candle. A break below here, particularly on a hotter PPI print, could indicate continued downside pressure.
On volatility and exposure: with PPI due today and the FOMC meeting less than a week away, the event density is elevated. Market participants often monitor the 7,236 session low and the 7,405 resistance zone during periods of heightened data-driven activity.
Leverage in index CFD trading amplifies moves in both directions. In a week with multiple catalysts landing in sequence, position sizing relative to account equity may result in wider intraday price fluctuations than are typically observed during lower-volatility periods.
RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.
Disclaimer: The information is provided for educational purposes only and doesn’t take into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. It does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to seek independent advice if necessary. The information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within. This material may contain historical or past performance figures and should not be relied on. Furthermore estimates, forward-looking statements, and forecasts cannot be guaranteed. The information on this site and the products and services offered are not intended for distribution to any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or region.
References
[1] “S&P 500 closes at a record to kick off June trading, CNBC” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/31/stock-market-today-live-updates.html Accessed on 11 June 2026.
[2] “CPI inflation report May 2026: Prices rose 4.2% annually, CNBC” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/10/cpi-inflation-report-may-2026.html Accessed on 11 June 2026.
[3] “CPI, FOMC, and the SpaceX IPO: two weeks of consequential data, Kraken Blog” https://blog.kraken.com/economic-brief/june-10-2026 Accessed on 11 June 2026.
[4] “CME FedWatch Tool, CME Group” https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html Accessed on 11 June 2026.
[5] “FOMC Minutes, April 28-29, 2026, Federal Reserve” https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260429.htm Accessed on 11 June 2026.
